45 This is interesting data � but here�s the Kicker � look at the power of Two Pairs and single pair hands. It�s not only higher than the WHAT ARE MY CHANCES OF WINNING? What are my chances of winning a hand with a given set of pocket cards? What are the odds of filling a straight? 46 How much you can expect to profit from these starting hands? The starting hand average win for each time played based on medium to loose Texas Hold�em Poker games with a $5/$10 limit.
AA $34.19 KK $24.13 QQ $17.36 JJ $12.08 AK suited $11.63 AK Offsuit $ 8.65 AQ suited $ 8.32 10 10 $ 7.72 AJ suited $ 5.69 AQ Offsuit $ 5.47 POCKET CARD ODDS Hole Cards Odds Any Pair 16 : 1 Suited Cards 3 : 1 A-K 82 : 1 Suited Connecting Cards 24 : 1 A-A or K-K 110 : 1 A-anything 5.3 : 1 Any two cards J's or Higher 10:1 After the Flop Pair J's or Higher 55 : 1 No Pair improving to a Pair 2.7 : 1 47 Pair improving to 3 of a Kind 8 : 1 Flop being 3 of a Kind 391 : 1 The River (5th Street) A-K hitting an A or K by the River 1:6 : 1 Q-Q vs A-K (A or K hitting) 1.5 : 1 Hitting 5th card to complete a Flush 1.6 : 1 Completing an Open Ended Straight 2.9 : 1 Three Of A Kind improving to Full House 2.7 : 1 Pocket Pair improving to 3 of a Kind after the Flop 12 : 1 Hitting a Backdoor Flush 33 : 1 More Interesting Texas Hold'em Odds 5 Players, there's an A on the flop. Chances a player has an A in their hole.
1.7 : 1 4 Players, there's an A on the flop. Chances a player has an A in their hole.
2.1 : 1 3 Players, there's an A on the flop. Chances a player has an A in their hole.
2.9 : 1 2 Players, there's an A on the flop. Chances a player has an A in their hole.
4.3 : 1 WHAT ARE POT ODDS? Pot odds are the odds you get when analyzing the current size of the pot vs. your next call or bet. Pot Odds help you make important call, Raise or fold decisions.
Example 1: There is $200 in the pot and a final $10 bet coming at you. You are looking to fill in your 4-card flush. Based on needing 48 one of four suits, the short-cut math is 1:4 chances or 25%.
Winning consistently is about beating Pot Odds and not overbetting.
If your Card Odds are 25% (you have four hearts and need another to win) and you only need to bet 5% of the present pot ($10 as a percentage of the $200) to see the last card, you are in great shape. Based on Pot Odds for this hand you could go as high as 25% of the pot based on your odds to pull a heart on the river.
Example 2: You are in a $5/$10 Hold'em game with Jack-Ten pocket cards and one opponent left on the turn.
You have an outside straight draw with a board of 2-5-9-Q, and only the river card left to make your straight. Any 8 or any King will finish this straight for you, so you have 8 outs (four 8's and 4 K's left in the deck) and 46 unseen cards left. 8/46 gives you a 6:1 chance or a 17% chance of getting the win. Your opponent bets $10.
6/1 = 17% Pot Odds 49 If you take a $10 bet you could win $100. Your bet is then 10% of the final pot. The 10% bet is smaller than the 17% odds, so you are in good shape from an investment point of view.
Whenever your call or bet (in this case 10% of the pot) is smaller than your odds of getting the winning hand (17%) you are buying the next card at a discount. The key is looking at the odds of a winning hand, not building a part of a winning hand.
Too many beginners just play good cards and just toss bad ones - or if they have the prospect of straight or a flush - they will just draw and draw with little consideration to anything else.
Unless you have the NUTS (nuts = the very best possible hand) every time there is a certain degree of risk when you put your money in the pot.
In the heat of the battle you may not always have time to get out your calculator and do the number crunching .You can look at Pot Odds in a much simpler way - just ask yourself if there is enough money in the pot to justify the risk? If there is a big pot - unless you just know you are beat, or it simply costs too much too call (which means your pot odds may not be so great after it's all said and done) - try to get some action.
Even if you knew you were a long shot - would you bet $25 or $50 on a chance to win $500 or $1000 or more? While you may be a long shot - it's not a bad bet if there is a reasonable chance you could win.
On the flip side, and this is important, you may have a decent hand - and it may even be the winner, (use your opponent or �tells� knowledge) - but if it's going to cost you $250 to call and you stand 50 to only win a few hundred then your pot odds are not so great and is probably not worth the risk.
Pot odds ratios are a useful tool to see how often you need to win the hand to break even.
If there is $100 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, you must win this hand 1 out of 11 times in order to break even. The thinking goes along the lines of: If you play 11 times, it'll cost you $110, but when you win, you get $110 ($100 + your $10 call).
The usefulness of card odds and pot odds becomes very apparent when you start comparing the two. As we know now, in a flush draw, your card odds for making your flush are 1.9 to 1 or 35%.
Let's say you're in a hand with a nut flush draw and it's $5 to you on the flop to call. Do you call? Your answer should be: What are my pot odds? If there is $15 in the pot plus a $5 bet from an opponent, then you are getting 20:5 or 4:1 pot odds � 25%. This means that in order to break even, you must win 1 out of every 5 times. However, with your flush draw, your odds of winning are 1 out of every 3 times! You should quickly realize that not only are you breaking even, but you're making a nice profit on this too. Let's calculate the profit margin on this by theoretically playing this hand 100 times from the flop, when is then checked to the river.
Total Cost to Play = 100 hands * $5 to call = -$500 Pot Value = $15 + $5 bet + $5 call = $25 Odds to Win = 1.9:1 or 35% (From the flop) Total Hands Won = 100 * Odds to Win (35%) = 35 wins Net Profit = Net Cost to Play + (Total Times Won * Pot Value) 51 = -$500 + (35 * $30) = -$500 + $1,050 = $550 Profit As you can see, you have a great reason to play this flush draw, because you'll be making money in the long run according to your card odds and pot odds. The most fundamental point to take from this is: If your Pot Odds > Card Odds, then you are making a profit.
So, even though you may be faced with a gut shot straight draw at times, which is a terrible draw at 5 to 1 hand odds, it can be worth it to call if you are getting pot odds greater than 5 to 1. Other times, if you have an excellent draw such as the flush draw, but someone has just Raised a large amount so your pot odds are 1:1 for instance, then you obviously should not continue trying to draw to a flush, as you will lose money in the long run. In this situation, a fold or semi-Bluff is your only solution, unless you know there will be callers behind you that improve your pot odds to better than break even.
Your ability to memorize or calculate your card odds and figure out your pot odds will lead you to make many of the right decisions in the future. Just be sure to remember that fundamental principle of playing drawing hands when your pot odds are greater than your card odds.
Another good rule to follow - a lot of players want to somehow factor in money they wagered on previous rounds. With the last example, you probably had already invested a significant portion 52 of that $200 pot. Let's say $50. Does that mean you should play or fold because of that money you already have in there? $50/$200? That's a big no.
That's not your money anymore! It's in a pool of money to be given to the winner. You have no ?stake? in that pot. The only stake you might have is totally mental and has no bearing on hard statistics.
The next step is to use bet odds and implied odds. That's tougher, because it involves predicting reactions of other players. With bet odds, you try to factor in how many people are going to call a Raise. With implied odds, you're thinking about reactions for the rest of the game. One example on implied odds . . .
Say it's another $5/$10 Hold'em game and you have a four flush on the flop.
Your neighbour bets, and everyone else folds. The pot is $50 at this point. First you figure out your chance of hitting your flush on the turn, and it comes out to about 19% (about 1 in 5). You have to call this $5 bet vs. a $50 pot, so that's a 10x payout. 1/5 is higher than 1/10, so bet odds are okay, but you must consider that this guy's going to bet into you on the turn and river also. That's the $5 plus two more $10 bets.
So now your facing $25 more till the end of the hand. So you have to consider your chances of hitting that flush on the turn or river, which makes it about 35% (better than 1 in 3 now), but you have to invest $25 for a finishing pot of $100. $100/$25 is 1 in 4. That's pretty close.
But there's more! 53 If you don't make it on the turn, it'll change your outs and odds! You'll have a 19.6% chance of hitting the flush (little worse than 1 in 5), but a $20 investment for a finishing pot of $100! $100/$20 is 1 in 5. So the chances could take a nasty turn if you didn't hit it! What's makes it more complicated is that if you did hit it on the turn, you could Raise him back, and get an extra $20 or maybe even $40 in the pot.
Once you've mastered simple outs and pot odds, bet and implied odds are just a longer extension of these equations. If you think about these things while you play, they will eventually become second nature to you.
More Odds Examples: A pocket pair You start with a pair of Jacks in the pocket. Not too shabby. The flop however, doesn't contain another Jack.
YOUR POCKET THE FLOP